For Entertainment Purposes Only–Part IV
Below is Part IV of my series on extended-range weather forecasting taken from my unpublished manuscript INSIDE THE WEATHER CHANNEL. FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY–Part IV Extended-range Forecasts ADVENTURES IN EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTING Let’s go back to Super Bowl week 2006. On January 30, I wrote in my weekly outlook narrative: Well, it must be Monday because I’m clueless as usual. The models are all hinting at a major storm for the eastern U.S. this weekend, but as far as details go, they’re all over the place. For instance, for Saturday evening, one model has an intense storm center over the upper Ohio Valley [which would have been bad news for the...
Read MoreFor Entertainment Purposes Only–Part III
What a winter! Enough snow to make Western ski areas envious has blanketed the Mid- Atlantic region. The U.S. government was shut down–not that anybody noticed–for several days. And there is undoubtedly more nastiness to come. It is, after all, only mid-February. So what better time to press on with my series on extended-range weather forecasting. Below is Part III, drawing on material from my unpublished manuscript INSIDE THE WEATHER CHANNEL. You can find Part II here Oh, and if you’d like to see another take on this winter’s weather (a bit tongue-in-cheek) take a look at my February 15 blog for The Weather Channel. FOR ENTERTAINMENT...
Read MoreFor Entertainment Purposes Only–Part II
There are times when general weather trends can be predicted with a relatively high degree of confidence a number of days into the future. But by and large, extended-range forecasting is fraught with peril. Below is part two of my series on longer range weather prediction. Part I appeared on January 11. The material is drawn from my unpublished book, INSIDE THE WEATHER CHANNEL. Look for part three in the next week or two. FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY–Part II Extended-range Forecasts EXPLODING SPAGHETTI FACTORIES Meteorologists have a way of dealing with this uncertainty. It’s called ensemble forecasting. By repeatedly tweaking the initial conditions of...
Read MoreFor Entertainment Purposes Only–Part I
In a recent blog, I alluded to the pitfalls of extended range weather forecasting. Despite my own admonition never to trust an outlook beyond three days into the future, I stepped out onto a limb and “predicted” a snowfall for Atlanta five days down the road. The snow fell, right on cue, although it wasn’t nearly so much as the models initially had suggested, which was 1 to 3 inches. Within the coveted three-day time frame, however, the models had backed off to a trace to an inch. That worked out just right, with only a dusting (see photo) coating the northern suburb where I live. But it was a disastrous dusting. A quick freeze after a period of wet snow...
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Senior Meteorologist
The Weather Channel (Ret)
Colonel, USAF Weather Officer (Ret)
Awarded the Legion of Merit
